Pair #481

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOP5-LIGSA26-JRAH

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Jon Rahm finish top 5?

Series: KXLIVTOP5
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11014

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.3200
Last: 0.8400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOP10-LIGSA26-JRAH

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Jon Rahm finish top 10?

Series: KXLIVTOP10
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10243

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.3300
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:01:09Z

Reasoning: If Rahm finishes top 5, he is necessarily also in the top 10. The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not guarantee top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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