Pair #480

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGSA26-THAT

Will Tyrrell Hatton lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVR1LEAD
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1106

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-THAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5494

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:00:50Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 of LIV Golf South Africa has no logical connection to winning a PGA major. These are entirely separate events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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