Pair #4797

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TKIM

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 37284

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-TKIM

Will Tom Kim win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 203702

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:14:07Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major and winning the Valero Texas Open are independent. The Valero Texas Open is not a major, and winning a major does not require winning the Valero Texas Open.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -4.31% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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