Pair #4796

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TKIM

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 37189

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMASTERS-26-TKIM

Tom Kim to compete in The Masters in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMASTERS
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-13T14:00:00Z
Volume: 11460

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim competes in The Masters in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:14:07Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require competing in the Masters specifically — Tom Kim could win the PGA Championship, U.S. Open, or The Open Championship without playing the Masters. And competing in the Masters does not mean he wins any major. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -4.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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