Pair #4788

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-ANOR

Will Alex Noren lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Alex Noren
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 16381

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Noren is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-ANOR

Valero Texas Open: Will Alex Noren finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Alex Noren
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11366

YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 0.6300
Last: 0.3600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Noren finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:13:48Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 overall has no logical connection to leading after Round 1, and vice versa. A player can lead R1 and miss the cut, or finish top 20 without ever leading R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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