Pair #4787

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-ANOR

Valero Texas Open: Will Alex Noren finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Alex Noren
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2112

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Noren finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-ANOR

Valero Texas Open: Will Alex Noren finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Alex Noren
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11366

YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 0.6300
Last: 0.3600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Noren finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:13:48Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not guarantee a top 10 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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