Pair #4779

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-JSPA

Valero Texas Open: Will J.J. Spaun make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 722

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If J.J. Spaun has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-JSPA

Will J.J. Spaun lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22765

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If J.J. Spaun is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:13:26Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could implode in Round 2), and making the cut does not require having led after Round 1. Neither necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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