Pair #4773

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2321

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0700

Rules

If J.J. Spaun wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-JSPA

Valero Texas Open: Will J.J. Spaun make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 722

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If J.J. Spaun has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:13:26Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and making the cut at the Valero Texas Open are independent events at different tournaments. Neither necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -68.44% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9600
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -72.72% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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