Pair #4771

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2321

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-JSPA

Valero Texas Open: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5847

YES ask: 0.6800
NO ask: 0.3300
Last: 0.6700

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:13:26Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and finishing top 20 at the Valero Texas Open are independent events at different tournaments. Neither necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -57.16% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6400
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -61.44% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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