Pair #4770

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2321

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0700

Rules

If J.J. Spaun wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-JSPA

Will J.J. Spaun win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 244868

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If J.J. Spaun wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:13:26Z

Reasoning: Winning a major does not imply winning the Valero Texas Open (not a major), and winning the Valero Texas Open does not imply winning a major. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 5.36% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9700
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +1.08% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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