Pair #4769

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-JSPA

Valero Texas Open: Will J.J. Spaun make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 722

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JSPA

Will J.J. Spaun win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 4303647

YES ask: 0.0030
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0030

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:13:26Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters and making the cut at the Valero Texas Open are entirely independent events at different tournaments. Neither logically necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.0130
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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