Pair #4765

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-JKEE

Valero Texas Open: Will John Keefer finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: John Keefer
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10020

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If John Keefer finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-JKEE

Valero Texas Open: Will John Keefer make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: John Keefer
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 7143

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If John Keefer has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:13:06Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily requires having made the cut. The reverse is not true — making the cut does not guarantee a top 5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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