Pair #4763

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-JKEE

Valero Texas Open: Will John Keefer make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: John Keefer
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 7143

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If John Keefer has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-JKEE

Will John Keefer lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: John Keefer
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 95700

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If John Keefer is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:13:06Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could collapse in Round 2), and making the cut does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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