Pair #476

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGSA26-THAT

Will Tyrrell Hatton lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVR1LEAD
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1106

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-THAT

Will Tyrrell Hatton win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 4807562

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:00:50Z

Reasoning: These are separate tournaments. Winning the Masters has no logical connection to leading after Round 1 of LIV Golf South Africa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9810
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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