Pair #4758

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-JKEE

Valero Texas Open: Will John Keefer finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: John Keefer
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 52369

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If John Keefer finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-JKEE

Valero Texas Open: Will John Keefer make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: John Keefer
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 7143

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If John Keefer has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:13:06Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 in a PGA Tour event requires having made the cut (only players who make the cut play the final rounds). The reverse is not true — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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