Pair #4756

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-JKEE

Valero Texas Open: Will John Keefer finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: John Keefer
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12160

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If John Keefer finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-JKEE

Valero Texas Open: Will John Keefer finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: John Keefer
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 52369

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If John Keefer finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:12:46Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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