Pair #4740

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-WZAL

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Will Zalatoris
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 9096

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

Rules

If Will Zalatoris wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-WZAL

Will Will Zalatoris win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Will Zalatoris
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 629119

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Will Zalatoris wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:12:28Z

Reasoning: The Valero Texas Open is not a major, so winning a major does not imply winning it, and winning the Valero does not imply winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.73% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -2.55% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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