Pair #474

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOP5-LIGSA26-THAT

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 5?

Series: KXLIVTOP5
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 372

YES ask: 0.8500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-THAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5494

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:00:50Z

Reasoning: LIV Golf South Africa is not a PGA major. A top-5 finish there has no logical connection to winning a major, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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