Pair #4739

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-WZAL

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Will Zalatoris
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 9096

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Will Zalatoris wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMASTERS-26-WZAL

Will Zalatoris to compete in The Masters in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMASTERS
Entity: Will Zalatoris
Expiration: 2026-04-13T14:00:00Z
Volume: 17823

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Will Zalatoris competes in The Masters in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:12:28Z

Reasoning: Zalatoris could win a major other than the Masters (PGA Championship, U.S. Open, The Open Championship), so winning a major does not necessitate competing in the Masters. And competing in the Masters does not mean he wins any major. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.73% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -2.55% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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