Pair #473

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGSA26-THAT

Will Tyrrell Hatton lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVR1LEAD
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1106

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOP5-LIGSA26-THAT

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 5?

Series: KXLIVTOP5
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 372

YES ask: 0.8500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:00:50Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 overall does not require leading after Round 1, and leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top-5 finish. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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