Pair #4729

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-SVAL

Valero Texas Open: Will Sami Valimaki finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Sami Valimaki
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 409

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sami Valimaki finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-SVAL

Valero Texas Open: Will Sami Valimaki finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sami Valimaki
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3195

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sami Valimaki finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:12:07Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 5 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue