Pair #4727

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-SVAL

Valero Texas Open: Will Sami Valimaki finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sami Valimaki
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 967

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sami Valimaki finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-SVAL

Valero Texas Open: Will Sami Valimaki finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sami Valimaki
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3195

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sami Valimaki finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:12:07Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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