Pair #4720

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-SVAL

Valero Texas Open: Will Sami Valimaki finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sami Valimaki
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 967

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sami Valimaki finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-SVAL

Will Sami Valimaki win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sami Valimaki
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 537138

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sami Valimaki wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:11:46Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters has no logical connection to finishing top 10 in the Valero Texas Open. These are entirely separate tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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