Pair #4719

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-SVAL

Valero Texas Open: Will Sami Valimaki finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sami Valimaki
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3195

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sami Valimaki finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-SVAL

Will Sami Valimaki win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sami Valimaki
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 537138

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sami Valimaki wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:11:46Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters has no logical connection to finishing top 20 in the Valero Texas Open. These are entirely separate tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.7910
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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