Pair #4712

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1168127

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-MPEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Marco Penge finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7163

YES ask: 0.7400
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:11:46Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valero Texas Open means finishing 1st, which is necessarily within the top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not require winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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