Pair #4710

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MPEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 800

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

Rules

If Marco Penge wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-MPEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Marco Penge finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7163

YES ask: 0.7400
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:11:46Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Major has no logical connection to finishing top 20 in the Valero Texas Open. These are entirely separate tournaments with no dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -61.12% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7400
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -65.40% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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