Pair #4709

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MPEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 800

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1168127

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:11:46Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Major does not imply winning the Valero Texas Open (different tournament, not a major). Winning the Valero Texas Open does not imply winning a major (it is not a major).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -3.34% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -7.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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