Pair #470

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JROS

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Justin Rose finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 14858

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JROS

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 36687

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:00:50Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require winning any of them. Winning a major means a top-10 finish in that event but not necessarily all four. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 22.40% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9700
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: +18.19% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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