Pair #4697

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-ANOV

Valero Texas Open: Will Andrew Novak finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2318

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Andrew Novak finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-ANOV

Valero Texas Open: Will Andrew Novak finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 9368

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Andrew Novak finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:11:27Z

Reasoning: If Novak finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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