Pair #4686

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-HLI

Will Hao-Tong Li lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Hao-Tong Li
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 31148

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

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Rules

If Hao-Tong Li is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-HLI

Will Hao-Tong Li win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Hao-Tong Li
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 6135375

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 0.9920
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Hao-Tong Li wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:11:08Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters and leading Round 1 of the Valero Texas Open are entirely independent events across different tournaments. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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