Pair #4682

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-MMCN

Valero Texas Open: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5990

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-MMCN

Valero Texas Open: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 21421

YES ask: 0.4600
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.4700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:10:47Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — a top 20 finish could be positions 11-20, which would not satisfy top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue