Pair #468

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JROS

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Justin Rose finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 14858

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JROS

Will Justin Rose win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 16684948

YES ask: 0.0560
NO ask: 0.9450
Last: 0.0560

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:00:31Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters means Rose finished top 10 in the Masters, but the other market requires top 10 in ALL FOUR majors. Winning one major does not guarantee top-10 finishes in the other three. Conversely, finishing top 10 in all four majors does not mean he won the Masters (could finish 2nd-10th). No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 34.80% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9560
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: +30.59% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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