Pair #4677

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MMCN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2833

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-MMCN

Valero Texas Open: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5990

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:10:47Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 and finishing top 10 at the Valero Texas Open are independent events across different tournaments. No logical dependency in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -25.78% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1900
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -30.06% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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