Pair #4672

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-MMCN

Valero Texas Open: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 21421

YES ask: 0.4600
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.4700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MMCN

Will Maverick McNealy win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2423032

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:10:29Z

Reasoning: These are two separate tournaments. Winning the Masters has no logical bearing on finishing top 20 at the Valero Texas Open.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.5810
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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