Pair #467

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JROS

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 36687

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0700

Rules

If Justin Rose wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027EUR-JROS

Justin Rose to be the Europe Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup

Series: KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2027-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4082

YES ask: 0.9400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Rose is the Europe Team Captain at the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:00:31Z

Reasoning: Being named Ryder Cup captain has no logical connection to winning a major. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -66.54% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9000
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -70.82% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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