Pair #4668

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CYOU

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 65874

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-CYOU

Masters Tournament: Will Cameron Young finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 159372

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0400
Last: 0.9500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:10:29Z

Reasoning: Cameron Young could win a major other than the Masters (PGA Championship, U.S. Open, The Open Championship) and still not finish top 20 at the Masters. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -65.79% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8700
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -70.07% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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