Pair #466

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JROS

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Justin Rose finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 14858

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027EUR-JROS

Justin Rose to be the Europe Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup

Series: KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2027-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4082

YES ask: 0.9400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose is the Europe Team Captain at the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:00:31Z

Reasoning: Being named Ryder Cup captain has no logical connection to finishing top 10 in all four majors. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -98.12% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8400
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -102.33% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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