Pair #4650

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-LABE

Will Ludvig Aberg win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3387250

YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-LABE

Valero Texas Open: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 25916

YES ask: 0.8100
NO ask: 0.2000
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:10:07Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is necessarily in the top 5. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 5 does not mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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