Pair #4641

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 22265

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-LABE

Masters Tournament: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 225774

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: low
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:09:44Z

Reasoning: If Aberg wins a major, it could be any of the four majors — not necessarily the Masters. So winning a major does not necessitate a top 10 at the Masters. However, if he specifically wins the Masters, that would imply a top 10 there, but winning ANY major doesn't guarantee that. No clean implication exists in either direction. Actually, winning the Masters (one path to resolving A) would imply B, but A can resolve YES via other majors without B. Conversely, finishing top 10 at the Masters doesn't mean he wins a major. No necessary implication holds universally.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -25.24% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1700
Days to maturity: 197
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -29.55% BELOW HURDLE

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