Pair #464

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXDPWORLDTOUR-HACPBM26-FMOL

Will Francesco Molinari win the Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO?

Series: KXDPWORLDTOUR
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1911

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Francesco Molinari wins the Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027EUR-FMOL

Francesco Molinari to be the Europe Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup

Series: KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2027-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 3895

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Francesco Molinari is the Europe Team Captain at the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:00:31Z

Reasoning: Being named Europe Ryder Cup captain has no logical connection to winning the Hainan Classic. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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