Pair #4639

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 21667

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-LABE

Valero Texas Open: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 56125

YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.0800
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:09:44Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and finishing top 20 at the Valero Texas Open are entirely separate events at different tournaments. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -65.47% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8600
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -69.75% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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