Pair #4638

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 21667

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0700

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-LABE

Will Ludvig Aberg win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3387250

YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:09:44Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Major does not imply winning the Valero Texas Open (different tournament), and winning the Valero Texas Open does not imply winning a major (not a major tournament). No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -27.76% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2100
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -32.04% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue