Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-LABE
All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10?
Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 6209
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ludvig Aberg finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-LABE
Valero Texas Open: Will Ludvig Aberg make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 8557
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ludvig Aberg has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:09:22Z
Reasoning: The all-4-majors top 10 market involves only majors; making the cut at the Valero Texas Open is a separate non-major event. No logical implication exists.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-98.96%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.9900
Days to maturity:
55
Hurdle yield:
4.21%
Excess yield:
-103.17%
BELOW HURDLE