Pair #4635

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-LABE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 6209

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-LABE

Will Ludvig Aberg lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 496609

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:09:22Z

Reasoning: The all-4-majors top 10 market involves only majors; the Valero Texas Open Round 1 lead is a separate non-major event. No logical implication exists.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 43
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -4.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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