Pair #4634

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-LABE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 6209

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-LABE

Masters Tournament: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 225774

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:09:22Z

Reasoning: If Aberg finishes top 10 in ALL 4 majors, he must have finished top 10 at the Masters (one of the 4 majors). The reverse does not hold — a top 10 at the Masters alone does not mean he finished top 10 in all 4 majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -83.20% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2100
Days to maturity: 39
Hurdle yield: 4.18%
Excess yield: -87.39% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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