Pair #4631

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-LABE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 6209

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-LABE

Will Ludvig Aberg win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3387250

YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:09:22Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors concerns major tournaments only; the Valero Texas Open is not a major. No logical implication exists in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -79.53% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2700
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -83.74% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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