Pair #4621

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-SSTR

Valero Texas Open: Will Sepp Straka make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5112

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sepp Straka has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-SSTR

Will Sepp Straka lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 197453

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sepp Straka is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:09:04Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not logically guarantee making the cut (a player could theoretically still miss the cut), and making the cut does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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