Pair #462

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-WSIM

Will Webb Simpson win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10927

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Webb Simpson wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027USA-WSIM

Webb Simpson to be the U.S. Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup

Series: KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2027-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 601

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Webb Simpson is the U.S. Team Captain at the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:00:31Z

Reasoning: Being named Ryder Cup captain has no logical connection to winning the Valspar Championship. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue