Pair #4616

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-SSTR

Valero Texas Open: Will Sepp Straka finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 56388

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sepp Straka finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-SSTR

Valero Texas Open: Will Sepp Straka make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5112

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sepp Straka has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:09:04Z

Reasoning: Finishing in the top 20 requires having made the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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