Pair #461

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-WSIM

Valspar Championship: Will Webb Simpson finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12509

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Webb Simpson finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027USA-WSIM

Webb Simpson to be the U.S. Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup

Series: KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2027-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 601

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Webb Simpson is the U.S. Team Captain at the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:00:31Z

Reasoning: Being named Ryder Cup captain has no logical connection to finishing top 20 at the Valspar Championship. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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